Federico Coria vs Vilius Gaubas prediction for May 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Vilius Gaubas 0 - Federico Coria 0. Vilius Gaubas is favored with a 57.5% win probability.
Vilius Gaubas
1542
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Federico Coria
1445
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Vilius GaubasFederico Coria
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.7% (2,384 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Federico Coria
Vilius Gaubas
Vilius Gaubas leads by 97 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Federico Coria SPW
60.5%
Below tour avg
Vilius Gaubas SPW
61.8%
Below tour avg
● Vilius Gaubas has a slight serve edge (+1.3%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Federico Coria ML
+445
Model: 42%
Edge: +24.1%
Vilius Gaubas ML
-630
Model: 58%
Edge: -28.8%
Model Projection
Federico Coria ML +445 · +24.1% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Vilius Gaubas has a moderate 97-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Vilius Gaubas has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Vilius Gaubas 57.5%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →