Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Aleksandr Shevchenko prediction for June 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Aleksandr Shevchenko 0 - Felix Auger-Aliassime 0. Felix Auger-Aliassime is favored with a 68.0% win probability.
Aleksandr Shevchenko
1522
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • WTA
Felix Auger-Aliassime
1692
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Aleksandr ShevchenkoFelix Auger-Aliassime
Grass
Surface
Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.2% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Aleksandr Shevchenko
Felix Auger-Aliassime leads by 170 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Grass: 56.5%
Felix Auger-Aliassime SPW
66.1%
Above tour avg
Aleksandr Shevchenko SPW
60.3%
Above tour avg
● Felix Auger-Aliassime has a significant serve advantage (+5.8%)
Key Matchup Factors
- Felix Auger-Aliassime holds a commanding 170-point Elo advantage on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Felix Auger-Aliassime has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Felix Auger-Aliassime at 68%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Felix Auger-Aliassime 68.0%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →