Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Mariano Navone prediction for May 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Mariano Navone 0 - Felix Auger-Aliassime 0. Felix Auger-Aliassime is favored with a 51.4% win probability.
Mariano Navone
1467
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Felix Auger-Aliassime
1650
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Mariano NavoneFelix Auger-Aliassime
Clay
Surface
Internazionali BNL d'Italia
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.6% (1,806 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Internazionali BNL d'Italia
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Mariano Navone
Felix Auger-Aliassime leads by 183 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Felix Auger-Aliassime SPW
58.6%
Below tour avg
Mariano Navone SPW
59.6%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Felix Auger-Aliassime ML
-175
Model: 51%
Edge: -12.2%
Mariano Navone ML
+145
Model: 48%
Edge: +7.7%
Model Projection
Mariano Navone ML +145 · +7.7% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Felix Auger-Aliassime holds a commanding 183-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Mariano Navone has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Felix Auger-Aliassime 51.4%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →