Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics prediction for June 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Marton Fucsovics 0 - Felix Auger-Aliassime 0. Felix Auger-Aliassime is favored with a 58.8% win probability.
Marton Fucsovics
1551
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Felix Auger-Aliassime
1817
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Marton FucsovicsFelix Auger-Aliassime
Hard
Surface
S-Hertogenbosch
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.6% (5,057 games)
Match Context
Tournament
S-Hertogenbosch
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Marton Fucsovics
Felix Auger-Aliassime leads by 266 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Felix Auger-Aliassime SPW
63.9%
Above tour avg
Marton Fucsovics SPW
63.6%
Above tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Felix Auger-Aliassime ML
-233
Model: 59%
Edge: -11.1%
Marton Fucsovics ML
+204
Model: 41%
Edge: +8.3%
Model Projection
Marton Fucsovics ML +204 · +8.3% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Felix Auger-Aliassime holds a commanding 266-point Elo advantage on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Felix Auger-Aliassime has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Felix Auger-Aliassime 58.8%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →