Felix Gill vs Alex Molcan prediction for May 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Alex Molcan 0 - Felix Gill 0. Felix Gill is favored with a 54.8% win probability.
Alex Molcan
1525
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Felix Gill
1596
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Alex MolcanFelix Gill
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.6% (2,758 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Felix Gill
Alex Molcan
Felix Gill leads by 71 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Felix Gill SPW
61.0%
Below tour avg
Alex Molcan SPW
58.6%
Below tour avg
● Felix Gill has a slight serve edge (+2.4%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Felix Gill ML
+285
Model: 55%
Edge: +28.8%
Alex Molcan ML
-353
Model: 45%
Edge: -32.7%
Model Projection
Felix Gill ML +285 · +28.8% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Felix Gill has a moderate 71-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Felix Gill has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Felix Gill 54.8%
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →