Felix Gill vs Marco Trungelliti prediction for June 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Marco Trungelliti 0 - Felix Gill 0. Marco Trungelliti is favored with a 50.9% win probability.
Marco Trungelliti
1463
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Felix Gill
1585
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Marco TrungellitiFelix Gill
Grass
Surface
Eastbourne
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.7% (5,961 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Eastbourne
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Felix Gill
Marco Trungelliti
Felix Gill leads by 122 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Felix Gill SPW
66.0%
Above tour avg
Marco Trungelliti SPW
67.9%
Above tour avg
● Marco Trungelliti has a slight serve edge (+1.9%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Felix Gill ML
-146
Model: 49%
Edge: -10.2%
Marco Trungelliti ML
+125
Model: 51%
Edge: +6.4%
Model Projection
Marco Trungelliti ML +125 · +6.4% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Felix Gill holds a commanding 122-point Elo advantage on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Marco Trungelliti has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Marco Trungelliti 50.9%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →