Felix Gill vs Rafael Jodar prediction for June 27, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Rafael Jodar 0 - Felix Gill 0. Rafael Jodar is favored with a 62.7% win probability.
Rafael Jodar
1548
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Felix Gill
1585
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Rafael JodarFelix Gill
Grass
Surface
ATP Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.5% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Felix Gill
Rafael Jodar
Felix Gill leads by 37 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Felix Gill SPW
65.9%
Above tour avg
Rafael Jodar SPW
68.4%
Above tour avg
● Rafael Jodar has a slight serve edge (+2.5%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Felix Gill ML
+376
Model: 37%
Edge: +16.3%
Rafael Jodar ML
-467
Model: 63%
Edge: -19.6%
Model Projection
Felix Gill ML +376 · +16.3% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (37-point Elo gap)
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Rafael Jodar has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Rafael Jodar 62.7%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →