Fiona Crawley vs Julia Riera prediction for June 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Julia Riera 0 - Fiona Crawley 0. Julia Riera is favored with a 52.4% win probability.
Julia Riera
1521
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • WTA
Fiona Crawley
1478
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Julia RieraFiona Crawley
Grass
Surface
WTA Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.1% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Fiona Crawley
Julia Riera
Julia Riera leads by 44 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Grass: 56.5%
Fiona Crawley SPW
56.6%
Above tour avg
Julia Riera SPW
55.7%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Fiona Crawley ML
-104
Model: 48%
Edge: -3.3%
Julia Riera ML
-112
Model: 52%
Edge: -0.5%
Key Matchup Factors
- Julia Riera has a moderate 44-point Elo edge on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Fiona Crawley has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Julia Riera 52.4%
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →