Flavio Cobolli vs Daniil Medvedev prediction for April 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Daniil Medvedev 0 - Flavio Cobolli 0. Flavio Cobolli is favored with a 50.5% win probability.
Daniil Medvedev
1723
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Flavio Cobolli
1666
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Daniil MedvedevFlavio Cobolli
Clay
Surface
ATP Madrid Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.4% (1,330 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Madrid Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Flavio Cobolli
Daniil Medvedev
Daniil Medvedev leads by 57 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Flavio Cobolli SPW
54.5%
Below tour avg
Daniil Medvedev SPW
54.1%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Flavio Cobolli ML
-2000
Model: 50%
Edge: -44.7%
Daniil Medvedev ML
+3300
Model: 50%
Edge: +46.6%
Model Projection
Daniil Medvedev ML +3300 · +46.6% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Daniil Medvedev has a moderate 57-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Flavio Cobolli has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Flavio Cobolli 50.5%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →