Flavio Cobolli vs Felix Auger-Aliassime prediction for June 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Felix Auger-Aliassime 0 - Flavio Cobolli 0. Flavio Cobolli is favored with a 64.6% win probability.
Felix Auger-Aliassime
1650
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Flavio Cobolli
1666
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Felix Auger-AliassimeFlavio Cobolli
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.4% (4,286 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Flavio Cobolli
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Flavio Cobolli leads by 16 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Flavio Cobolli SPW
60.0%
Below tour avg
Felix Auger-Aliassime SPW
56.7%
Below tour avg
● Flavio Cobolli has a significant serve advantage (+3.3%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Flavio Cobolli ML
-111
Model: 65%
Edge: +12.0%
Felix Auger-Aliassime ML
-102
Model: 35%
Edge: -15.1%
Model Projection
Flavio Cobolli ML -111 · +12.0% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (16-point Elo gap)
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Flavio Cobolli has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Flavio Cobolli 64.6%
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →