Flavio Cobolli vs Mariano Navone prediction for June 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Mariano Navone 0 - Flavio Cobolli 0. Flavio Cobolli is favored with a 63.6% win probability.
Mariano Navone
1462
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Flavio Cobolli
1610
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Mariano NavoneFlavio Cobolli
Grass
Surface
ATP Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.6% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Flavio Cobolli
Mariano Navone
Flavio Cobolli leads by 148 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Flavio Cobolli SPW
62.5%
Below tour avg
Mariano Navone SPW
60.3%
Below tour avg
● Flavio Cobolli has a slight serve edge (+2.1%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Flavio Cobolli ML
-353
Model: 64%
Edge: -14.4%
Mariano Navone ML
+300
Model: 36%
Edge: +11.4%
Model Projection
Mariano Navone ML +300 · +11.4% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Flavio Cobolli holds a commanding 148-point Elo advantage on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Flavio Cobolli has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Flavio Cobolli 63.6%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →