Flavio Cobolli vs Terence Atmane prediction for May 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Terence Atmane 0 - Flavio Cobolli 0. Flavio Cobolli is favored with a 62.4% win probability.
Terence Atmane
1413
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Flavio Cobolli
1666
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Terence AtmaneFlavio Cobolli
Clay
Surface
Internazionali BNL d'Italia
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.1% (1,969 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Internazionali BNL d'Italia
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Flavio Cobolli
Terence Atmane
Flavio Cobolli leads by 253 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Flavio Cobolli SPW
60.9%
Below tour avg
Terence Atmane SPW
58.7%
Below tour avg
● Flavio Cobolli has a slight serve edge (+2.2%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Flavio Cobolli ML
-285
Model: 62%
Edge: -11.6%
Terence Atmane ML
+225
Model: 38%
Edge: +6.8%
Model Projection
Terence Atmane ML +225 · +6.8% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Flavio Cobolli holds a commanding 253-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Flavio Cobolli has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Flavio Cobolli 62.4%
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More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →