Frances Tiafoe vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli prediction for May 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Camilo Ugo Carabelli 0 - Frances Tiafoe 0. Frances Tiafoe is favored with a 66.6% win probability.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
1498
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Frances Tiafoe
1592
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Camilo Ugo CarabelliFrances Tiafoe
Clay
Surface
ATP Hamburg Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.5% (2,758 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Hamburg Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Frances Tiafoe
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Frances Tiafoe leads by 94 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Frances Tiafoe SPW
65.4%
Above tour avg
Camilo Ugo Carabelli SPW
58.8%
Below tour avg
● Frances Tiafoe has a significant serve advantage (+6.6%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Frances Tiafoe ML
-122
Model: 67%
Edge: +11.7%
Camilo Ugo Carabelli ML
+111
Model: 33%
Edge: -14.0%
Model Projection
Frances Tiafoe ML -122 · +11.7% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Frances Tiafoe has a moderate 94-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Frances Tiafoe has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Frances Tiafoe at 67%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Frances Tiafoe 66.6%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →