Francisca Jorge vs Rebecca Sramkova prediction for May 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Rebecca Sramkova 0 - Francisca Jorge 0. Rebecca Sramkova is favored with a 62.0% win probability.
Rebecca Sramkova
1669
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • WTA
Francisca Jorge
1463
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Rebecca SramkovaFrancisca Jorge
Clay
Surface
WTA French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.6% (2,758 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Francisca Jorge
Rebecca Sramkova
Rebecca Sramkova leads by 206 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Clay: 56.5%
Francisca Jorge SPW
54.8%
Below tour avg
Rebecca Sramkova SPW
57.0%
Above tour avg
● Rebecca Sramkova has a slight serve edge (+2.2%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Francisca Jorge ML
+359
Model: 38%
Edge: +16.2%
Rebecca Sramkova ML
-472
Model: 62%
Edge: -20.5%
Model Projection
Francisca Jorge ML +359 · +16.2% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Rebecca Sramkova holds a commanding 206-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Rebecca Sramkova has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Rebecca Sramkova 62.0%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →