Francisco Cerundolo vs Alejandro Tabilo prediction for May 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Alejandro Tabilo 0 - Francisco Cerundolo 0. Francisco Cerundolo is favored with a 56.9% win probability.
Alejandro Tabilo
1491
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Francisco Cerundolo
1629
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Alejandro TabiloFrancisco Cerundolo
Clay
Surface
ATP Italian Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.1% (1,872 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Italian Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Francisco Cerundolo
Alejandro Tabilo
Francisco Cerundolo leads by 138 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Francisco Cerundolo SPW
61.2%
Below tour avg
Alejandro Tabilo SPW
60.0%
Below tour avg
● Francisco Cerundolo has a slight serve edge (+1.2%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Francisco Cerundolo ML
-144
Model: 57%
Edge: -2.1%
Alejandro Tabilo ML
+140
Model: 43%
Edge: +1.4%
Key Matchup Factors
- Francisco Cerundolo holds a commanding 138-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Francisco Cerundolo has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Francisco Cerundolo 56.9%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →