Francisco Cerundolo vs Jaume Munar prediction for June 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Jaume Munar 0 - Francisco Cerundolo 0. Francisco Cerundolo is favored with a 55.1% win probability.
Jaume Munar
1587
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Francisco Cerundolo
1548
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Jaume MunarFrancisco Cerundolo
Grass
Surface
ATP Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.2% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Francisco Cerundolo
Jaume Munar
Jaume Munar leads by 39 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Francisco Cerundolo SPW
64.4%
Above tour avg
Jaume Munar SPW
64.4%
Above tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Francisco Cerundolo ML
-361
Model: 55%
Edge: -23.2%
Jaume Munar ML
+306
Model: 45%
Edge: +20.2%
Model Projection
Jaume Munar ML +306 · +20.2% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (39-point Elo gap)
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Francisco Cerundolo has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Francisco Cerundolo 55.1%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →