Francisco Comesana vs Ethan Quinn prediction for May 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Ethan Quinn 0 - Francisco Comesana 0. Ethan Quinn is favored with a 50.2% win probability.
Ethan Quinn
1495
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Francisco Comesana
1527
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Ethan QuinnFrancisco Comesana
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.2% (3,925 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Francisco Comesana
Ethan Quinn
Francisco Comesana leads by 32 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Francisco Comesana SPW
60.5%
Below tour avg
Ethan Quinn SPW
61.9%
Below tour avg
● Ethan Quinn has a slight serve edge (+1.5%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Francisco Comesana ML
-141
Model: 50%
Edge: -8.7%
Ethan Quinn ML
+125
Model: 50%
Edge: +5.8%
Model Projection
Ethan Quinn ML +125 · +5.8% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (32-point Elo gap)
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Ethan Quinn has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Ethan Quinn 50.2%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →