Francisco Comesana vs Henry Bernet prediction for May 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Henry Bernet 0 - Francisco Comesana 0. Francisco Comesana is favored with a 53.9% win probability.
Henry Bernet
1411
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Francisco Comesana
1498
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Henry BernetFrancisco Comesana
Hard
Surface
ATP Geneva
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.7% (2,272 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Geneva
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Francisco Comesana
Henry Bernet
Francisco Comesana leads by 87 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Francisco Comesana SPW
61.7%
Below tour avg
Henry Bernet SPW
63.5%
Above tour avg
● Henry Bernet has a slight serve edge (+1.8%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Francisco Comesana ML
-253
Model: 54%
Edge: -17.8%
Henry Bernet ML
+206
Model: 46%
Edge: +13.4%
Model Projection
Henry Bernet ML +206 · +13.4% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Francisco Comesana has a moderate 87-point Elo edge on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Henry Bernet has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Francisco Comesana 53.9%
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →