Francisco Comesana vs Jan-Lennard Struff prediction for May 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Jan-Lennard Struff 0 - Francisco Comesana 0. Jan-Lennard Struff is favored with a 53.7% win probability.
Jan-Lennard Struff
1452
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Francisco Comesana
1527
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Jan-Lennard StruffFrancisco Comesana
Clay
Surface
ATP Italian Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.3% (1,654 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Italian Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Francisco Comesana
Jan-Lennard Struff
Francisco Comesana leads by 75 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Francisco Comesana SPW
68.9%
Above tour avg
Jan-Lennard Struff SPW
70.3%
Above tour avg
● Jan-Lennard Struff has a slight serve edge (+1.4%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Francisco Comesana ML
-200
Model: 46%
Edge: -20.4%
Jan-Lennard Struff ML
+184
Model: 54%
Edge: +18.5%
Model Projection
Jan-Lennard Struff ML +184 · +18.5% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Francisco Comesana has a moderate 75-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Jan-Lennard Struff has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Jan-Lennard Struff 53.7%
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →