Francisco Comesana vs Jaume Munar prediction for May 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Jaume Munar 0 - Francisco Comesana 0. Jaume Munar is favored with a 62.4% win probability.
Jaume Munar
1642
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Francisco Comesana
1498
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Jaume MunarFrancisco Comesana
Hard
Surface
Geneva
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.6% (2,758 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Geneva
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Francisco Comesana
Jaume Munar
Jaume Munar leads by 144 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Francisco Comesana SPW
62.8%
Below tour avg
Jaume Munar SPW
66.9%
Above tour avg
● Jaume Munar has a significant serve advantage (+4.1%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Francisco Comesana ML
+140
Model: 38%
Edge: -4.0%
Jaume Munar ML
-170
Model: 62%
Edge: -0.6%
Key Matchup Factors
- Jaume Munar holds a commanding 144-point Elo advantage on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Jaume Munar has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Jaume Munar 62.4%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →