Frederico Ferreira Silva vs Matej Dodig prediction for June 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Matej Dodig 0 - Frederico Ferreira Silva 0. Frederico Ferreira Silva is favored with a 61.6% win probability.
Matej Dodig
1468
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Frederico Ferreira Silva
1587
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Matej DodigFrederico Ferreira Silva
Grass
Surface
ATP Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.7% (6,036 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Frederico Ferreira Silva
Matej Dodig
Frederico Ferreira Silva leads by 118 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Frederico Ferreira Silva SPW
66.6%
Above tour avg
Matej Dodig SPW
64.3%
Above tour avg
● Frederico Ferreira Silva has a slight serve edge (+2.3%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Frederico Ferreira Silva ML
-143
Model: 62%
Edge: +2.8%
Matej Dodig ML
+122
Model: 38%
Edge: -6.7%
Key Matchup Factors
- Frederico Ferreira Silva holds a commanding 118-point Elo advantage on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Frederico Ferreira Silva has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Frederico Ferreira Silva 61.6%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →