Gauthier Onclin vs Lorenzo Giustino prediction for June 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Lorenzo Giustino 0 - Gauthier Onclin 0. Gauthier Onclin is favored with a 54.9% win probability.
Lorenzo Giustino
1559
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Gauthier Onclin
1483
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Lorenzo GiustinoGauthier Onclin
Grass
Surface
ATP Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.7% (6,036 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Gauthier Onclin
Lorenzo Giustino
Lorenzo Giustino leads by 75 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Gauthier Onclin SPW
63.1%
Below tour avg
Lorenzo Giustino SPW
60.4%
Below tour avg
● Gauthier Onclin has a slight serve edge (+2.7%)
Key Matchup Factors
- Lorenzo Giustino has a moderate 75-point Elo edge on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Gauthier Onclin has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Gauthier Onclin 54.9%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →