Gianluca Cadenasso vs Liam Broady prediction for May 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Liam Broady 0 - Gianluca Cadenasso 0. Gianluca Cadenasso is favored with a 51.3% win probability.
Liam Broady
1581
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Gianluca Cadenasso
1487
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Liam BroadyGianluca Cadenasso
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.2% (2,567 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Gianluca Cadenasso
Liam Broady
Liam Broady leads by 94 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Gianluca Cadenasso SPW
58.0%
Below tour avg
Liam Broady SPW
58.4%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Gianluca Cadenasso ML
-334
Model: 51%
Edge: -25.7%
Liam Broady ML
+272
Model: 49%
Edge: +21.8%
Model Projection
Liam Broady ML +272 · +21.8% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Liam Broady has a moderate 94-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Liam Broady has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Gianluca Cadenasso 51.3%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →