Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer prediction for May 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 0 - Gilles Arnaud Bailly 0. Gilles Arnaud Bailly is favored with a 55.4% win probability.
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
1465
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Gilles Arnaud Bailly
1524
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Nicolai Budkov KjaerGilles Arnaud Bailly
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.0% (2,567 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Gilles Arnaud Bailly
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
Gilles Arnaud Bailly leads by 59 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Gilles Arnaud Bailly SPW
62.0%
Below tour avg
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer SPW
60.0%
Below tour avg
● Gilles Arnaud Bailly has a slight serve edge (+2.0%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Gilles Arnaud Bailly ML
+286
Model: 55%
Edge: +29.5%
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer ML
-355
Model: 45%
Edge: -33.4%
Model Projection
Gilles Arnaud Bailly ML +286 · +29.5% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Gilles Arnaud Bailly has a moderate 59-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Gilles Arnaud Bailly has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Gilles Arnaud Bailly 55.4%
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →