Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Jacob Fearnley prediction for May 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Jacob Fearnley 0 - Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 0. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard is favored with a 60.5% win probability.
Jacob Fearnley
1469
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
1484
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Jacob FearnleyGiovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Clay
Surface
ATP Italian Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.3% (1,708 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Italian Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Jacob Fearnley
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard leads by 15 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard SPW
76.6%
Above tour avg
Jacob Fearnley SPW
72.3%
Above tour avg
● Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard has a significant serve advantage (+4.3%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ML
+430
Model: 60%
Edge: +41.6%
Jacob Fearnley ML
-498
Model: 40%
Edge: -43.8%
Model Projection
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ML +430 · +41.6% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (15-point Elo gap)
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 60.5%
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →