Gustavo Heide vs Nicolas Mejia prediction for June 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Nicolas Mejia 0 - Gustavo Heide 0. Gustavo Heide is favored with a 56.5% win probability.
Nicolas Mejia
1420
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Gustavo Heide
1465
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Nicolas MejiaGustavo Heide
Grass
Surface
ATP Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.3% (6,309 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Gustavo Heide
Nicolas Mejia
Gustavo Heide leads by 45 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Gustavo Heide SPW
65.9%
Above tour avg
Nicolas Mejia SPW
64.9%
Above tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Gustavo Heide ML
-180
Model: 56%
Edge: -7.7%
Nicolas Mejia ML
+150
Model: 44%
Edge: +3.4%
Key Matchup Factors
- Gustavo Heide has a moderate 45-point Elo edge on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Gustavo Heide has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Gustavo Heide 56.5%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →