Hamad Medjedovic vs Joao Fonseca prediction for May 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Joao Fonseca 0 - Hamad Medjedovic 0. Hamad Medjedovic is favored with a 50.9% win probability.
Joao Fonseca
1665
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Hamad Medjedovic
1503
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Joao FonsecaHamad Medjedovic
Clay
Surface
Internazionali BNL d'Italia
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.2% (1,806 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Internazionali BNL d'Italia
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Hamad Medjedovic
Joao Fonseca
Joao Fonseca leads by 161 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Hamad Medjedovic SPW
62.2%
Below tour avg
Joao Fonseca SPW
61.7%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Hamad Medjedovic ML
+220
Model: 51%
Edge: +19.7%
Joao Fonseca ML
-275
Model: 49%
Edge: -24.3%
Model Projection
Hamad Medjedovic ML +220 · +19.7% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Joao Fonseca holds a commanding 161-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Hamad Medjedovic has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Hamad Medjedovic 50.9%
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More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →