Hamad Medjedovic vs Mariano Navone prediction for May 6, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Mariano Navone 0 - Hamad Medjedovic 0. Hamad Medjedovic is favored with a 52.6% win probability.
Mariano Navone
1467
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Hamad Medjedovic
1503
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Mariano NavoneHamad Medjedovic
Clay
Surface
ATP Italian Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.8% (2,098 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Italian Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Hamad Medjedovic
Mariano Navone
Hamad Medjedovic leads by 36 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Hamad Medjedovic SPW
60.9%
Below tour avg
Mariano Navone SPW
58.8%
Below tour avg
● Hamad Medjedovic has a slight serve edge (+2.1%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Hamad Medjedovic ML
-118
Model: 53%
Edge: -1.5%
Mariano Navone ML
+120
Model: 47%
Edge: +1.9%
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (36-point Elo gap)
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Hamad Medjedovic has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Hamad Medjedovic 52.6%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →