Harold Mayot vs Alejandro Moro Canas prediction for June 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Alejandro Moro Canas 0 - Harold Mayot 0. Alejandro Moro Canas is favored with a 51.0% win probability.
Alejandro Moro Canas
1467
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Harold Mayot
1438
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Alejandro Moro CanasHarold Mayot
Grass
Surface
ATP Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.0% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Harold Mayot
Alejandro Moro Canas
Alejandro Moro Canas leads by 30 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Harold Mayot SPW
65.5%
Above tour avg
Alejandro Moro Canas SPW
65.5%
Above tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Harold Mayot ML
-207
Model: 49%
Edge: -18.4%
Alejandro Moro Canas ML
+174
Model: 51%
Edge: +14.5%
Model Projection
Alejandro Moro Canas ML +174 · +14.5% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (30-point Elo gap)
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Alejandro Moro Canas has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Alejandro Moro Canas 51.0%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →