Harriet Dart vs Jelena Ostapenko prediction for June 27, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Jelena Ostapenko 0 - Harriet Dart 0. Jelena Ostapenko is favored with a 63.2% win probability.
Jelena Ostapenko
1644
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • WTA
Harriet Dart
1513
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Jelena OstapenkoHarriet Dart
Grass
Surface
WTA Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.5% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Harriet Dart
Jelena Ostapenko
Jelena Ostapenko leads by 131 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Grass: 56.5%
Harriet Dart SPW
59.0%
Above tour avg
Jelena Ostapenko SPW
61.9%
Above tour avg
● Jelena Ostapenko has a slight serve edge (+2.9%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Harriet Dart ML
+283
Model: 37%
Edge: +10.7%
Jelena Ostapenko ML
-350
Model: 63%
Edge: -14.5%
Model Projection
Harriet Dart ML +283 · +10.7% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Jelena Ostapenko holds a commanding 131-point Elo advantage on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Jelena Ostapenko has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Jelena Ostapenko 63.2%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →