Harry Wendelken vs Luka Pavlovic prediction for May 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Luka Pavlovic 0 - Harry Wendelken 0. Luka Pavlovic is favored with a 57.5% win probability.
Luka Pavlovic
1650
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Harry Wendelken
1493
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Luka PavlovicHarry Wendelken
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.0% (2,567 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Harry Wendelken
Luka Pavlovic
Luka Pavlovic leads by 157 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Harry Wendelken SPW
62.0%
Below tour avg
Luka Pavlovic SPW
64.1%
Above tour avg
● Luka Pavlovic has a slight serve edge (+2.0%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Harry Wendelken ML
+151
Model: 42%
Edge: +2.7%
Luka Pavlovic ML
-178
Model: 58%
Edge: -6.5%
Key Matchup Factors
- Luka Pavlovic holds a commanding 157-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Luka Pavlovic has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Luka Pavlovic 57.5%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →