Henrique Rocha vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz prediction for May 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Pablo Llamas Ruiz 0 - Henrique Rocha 0. Henrique Rocha is favored with a 56.9% win probability.
Pablo Llamas Ruiz
1486
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Henrique Rocha
1597
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Pablo Llamas RuizHenrique Rocha
Clay
Surface
ATP Italian Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.8% (1,460 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Italian Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Henrique Rocha
Pablo Llamas Ruiz
Henrique Rocha leads by 111 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Henrique Rocha SPW
60.2%
Below tour avg
Pablo Llamas Ruiz SPW
60.1%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Key Matchup Factors
- Henrique Rocha holds a commanding 111-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Henrique Rocha has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Henrique Rocha 56.9%
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More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →