Henry Bernet vs Francisco Comesana prediction for May 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Francisco Comesana 0 - Henry Bernet 0. Francisco Comesana is favored with a 51.8% win probability.
Francisco Comesana
1498
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Henry Bernet
1411
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Francisco ComesanaHenry Bernet
Hard
Surface
Geneva
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.7% (2,277 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Geneva
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Henry Bernet
Francisco Comesana
Francisco Comesana leads by 87 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Henry Bernet SPW
63.5%
Above tour avg
Francisco Comesana SPW
61.7%
Below tour avg
● Henry Bernet has a slight serve edge (+1.8%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Henry Bernet ML
+220
Model: 48%
Edge: +17.0%
Francisco Comesana ML
-275
Model: 52%
Edge: -21.5%
Model Projection
Henry Bernet ML +220 · +17.0% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Francisco Comesana has a moderate 87-point Elo edge on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Henry Bernet has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Francisco Comesana 51.8%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →