Hugo Dellien vs Roberto Carballes Baena prediction for May 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Roberto Carballes Baena 0 - Hugo Dellien 0. Hugo Dellien is favored with a 54.6% win probability.
Roberto Carballes Baena
1428
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Hugo Dellien
1369
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Roberto Carballes BaenaHugo Dellien
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.4% (3,723 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Hugo Dellien
Roberto Carballes Baena
Roberto Carballes Baena leads by 59 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Hugo Dellien SPW
59.1%
Below tour avg
Roberto Carballes Baena SPW
58.8%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Hugo Dellien ML
-190
Model: 55%
Edge: -10.9%
Roberto Carballes Baena ML
+158
Model: 45%
Edge: +6.6%
Model Projection
Roberto Carballes Baena ML +158 · +6.6% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Roberto Carballes Baena has a moderate 59-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Hugo Dellien has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Hugo Dellien 54.6%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →