Hugo Gaston vs Andrea Pellegrino prediction for May 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Andrea Pellegrino 0 - Hugo Gaston 0. Andrea Pellegrino is favored with a 65.6% win probability.
Andrea Pellegrino
1521
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Hugo Gaston
1369
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Andrea PellegrinoHugo Gaston
Clay
Surface
ATP Italian Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.8% (1,460 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Italian Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Hugo Gaston
Andrea Pellegrino
Andrea Pellegrino leads by 152 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Hugo Gaston SPW
58.6%
Below tour avg
Andrea Pellegrino SPW
63.0%
Below tour avg
● Andrea Pellegrino has a significant serve advantage (+4.4%)
Key Matchup Factors
- Andrea Pellegrino holds a commanding 152-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Andrea Pellegrino has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Andrea Pellegrino at 66%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Andrea Pellegrino 65.6%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →