Hugo Gaston vs Ignacio Buse prediction for May 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Ignacio Buse 0 - Hugo Gaston 0. Ignacio Buse is favored with a 61.2% win probability.
Ignacio Buse
1609
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Hugo Gaston
1369
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Ignacio BuseHugo Gaston
Clay
Surface
Hamburg Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.4% (2,312 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Hamburg Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Hugo Gaston
Ignacio Buse
Ignacio Buse leads by 241 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Hugo Gaston SPW
59.3%
Below tour avg
Ignacio Buse SPW
61.7%
Below tour avg
● Ignacio Buse has a slight serve edge (+2.3%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Hugo Gaston ML
+223
Model: 39%
Edge: +7.9%
Ignacio Buse ML
-275
Model: 61%
Edge: -12.2%
Model Projection
Hugo Gaston ML +223 · +7.9% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Ignacio Buse holds a commanding 241-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Ignacio Buse has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Ignacio Buse 61.2%
--
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →