Ignacio Buse vs Emilio Nava prediction for June 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Emilio Nava 0 - Ignacio Buse 0. Emilio Nava is favored with a 57.7% win probability.
Emilio Nava
1497
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Ignacio Buse
1553
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Emilio NavaIgnacio Buse
Grass
Surface
ATP Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.5% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Ignacio Buse
Emilio Nava
Ignacio Buse leads by 57 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Ignacio Buse SPW
63.1%
Below tour avg
Emilio Nava SPW
65.2%
Above tour avg
● Emilio Nava has a slight serve edge (+2.2%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Ignacio Buse ML
-150
Model: 42%
Edge: -17.7%
Emilio Nava ML
+133
Model: 58%
Edge: +14.7%
Model Projection
Emilio Nava ML +133 · +14.7% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Ignacio Buse has a moderate 57-point Elo edge on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Emilio Nava has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Emilio Nava 57.7%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →