Ignacio Buse vs Flavio Cobolli prediction for May 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Flavio Cobolli 0 - Ignacio Buse 0. Flavio Cobolli is favored with a 58.2% win probability.
Flavio Cobolli
1666
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Ignacio Buse
1609
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Flavio CobolliIgnacio Buse
Clay
Surface
ATP Hamburg Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.7% (2,463 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Hamburg Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Ignacio Buse
Flavio Cobolli
Flavio Cobolli leads by 57 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Ignacio Buse SPW
58.3%
Below tour avg
Flavio Cobolli SPW
60.6%
Below tour avg
● Flavio Cobolli has a slight serve edge (+2.3%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Ignacio Buse ML
+134
Model: 42%
Edge: -1.0%
Flavio Cobolli ML
-154
Model: 58%
Edge: -2.4%
Key Matchup Factors
- Flavio Cobolli has a moderate 57-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Flavio Cobolli has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Flavio Cobolli 58.2%
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →