Ignacio Buse vs Jenson Brooksby prediction for July 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Jenson Brooksby 0 - Ignacio Buse 0. Ignacio Buse is favored with a 54.5% win probability.
Jenson Brooksby
1597
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Ignacio Buse
1553
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Jenson BrooksbyIgnacio Buse
Grass
Surface
ATP Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.2% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Ignacio Buse
Jenson Brooksby
Jenson Brooksby leads by 44 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Ignacio Buse SPW
66.0%
Above tour avg
Jenson Brooksby SPW
64.3%
Above tour avg
● Ignacio Buse has a slight serve edge (+1.7%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Ignacio Buse ML
+137
Model: 54%
Edge: +12.3%
Jenson Brooksby ML
-152
Model: 46%
Edge: -14.8%
Model Projection
Ignacio Buse ML +137 · +12.3% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Jenson Brooksby has a moderate 44-point Elo edge on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Ignacio Buse has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Ignacio Buse 54.5%
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More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →