Iva Jović vs Coco Gauff prediction for May 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Coco Gauff 0 - Iva Jović 0. Coco Gauff is favored with a 68.4% win probability.
Coco Gauff
1883
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • WTA
Iva Jović
1527
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Coco GauffIva Jović
Clay
Surface
WTA Italian Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.8% (2,098 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA Italian Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Iva Jović
Coco Gauff
Coco Gauff leads by 356 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Clay: 56.5%
Iva Jović SPW
51.0%
Below tour avg
Coco Gauff SPW
56.1%
Below tour avg
● Coco Gauff has a significant serve advantage (+5.0%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Iva Jović ML
-2500
Model: 32%
Edge: -64.6%
Coco Gauff ML
+3100
Model: 68%
Edge: +65.3%
Model Projection
Coco Gauff ML +3100 · +65.3% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Coco Gauff holds a commanding 356-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Coco Gauff has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Coco Gauff at 68%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Coco Gauff 68.4%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →