James Duckworth vs Aleksandar Vukic prediction for June 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Aleksandar Vukic 0 - James Duckworth 0. James Duckworth is favored with a 64.2% win probability.
Aleksandar Vukic
1487
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
James Duckworth
1503
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Aleksandar VukicJames Duckworth
Hard
Surface
Queens
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.5% (5,165 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Queens
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
James Duckworth
Aleksandar Vukic
James Duckworth leads by 16 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
James Duckworth SPW
68.1%
Above tour avg
Aleksandar Vukic SPW
63.3%
Below tour avg
● James Duckworth has a significant serve advantage (+4.8%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
James Duckworth ML
-222
Model: 64%
Edge: -4.7%
Aleksandar Vukic ML
+187
Model: 36%
Edge: +0.9%
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (16-point Elo gap)
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- James Duckworth has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
James Duckworth 64.2%
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →