James Duckworth vs Edas Butvilas prediction for May 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Edas Butvilas 0 - James Duckworth 0. Edas Butvilas is favored with a 52.2% win probability.
Edas Butvilas
1561
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
James Duckworth
1503
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Edas ButvilasJames Duckworth
Hard
Surface
Geneva
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.2% (2,335 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Geneva
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
James Duckworth
Edas Butvilas
Edas Butvilas leads by 58 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
James Duckworth SPW
64.3%
Above tour avg
Edas Butvilas SPW
64.7%
Above tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
James Duckworth ML
-141
Model: 48%
Edge: -10.7%
Edas Butvilas ML
+119
Model: 52%
Edge: +6.6%
Model Projection
Edas Butvilas ML +119 · +6.6% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Edas Butvilas has a moderate 58-point Elo edge on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Edas Butvilas has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Edas Butvilas 52.2%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →