Jan Choinski vs Alexei Popyrin prediction for June 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Alexei Popyrin 0 - Jan Choinski 0. Jan Choinski is favored with a 52.7% win probability.
Alexei Popyrin
1441
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Jan Choinski
1472
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Alexei PopyrinJan Choinski
Grass
Surface
Eastbourne
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.5% (6,036 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Eastbourne
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Jan Choinski
Alexei Popyrin
Jan Choinski leads by 31 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Jan Choinski SPW
66.8%
Above tour avg
Alexei Popyrin SPW
64.8%
Above tour avg
● Jan Choinski has a slight serve edge (+2.0%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Jan Choinski ML
+196
Model: 53%
Edge: +18.9%
Alexei Popyrin ML
-224
Model: 47%
Edge: -21.9%
Model Projection
Jan Choinski ML +196 · +18.9% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (31-point Elo gap)
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Jan Choinski has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Jan Choinski 52.7%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →