Jan Choinski vs Dusan Lajovic prediction for May 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Dusan Lajovic 0 - Jan Choinski 0. Jan Choinski is favored with a 65.2% win probability.
Dusan Lajovic
1293
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Jan Choinski
1472
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Dusan LajovicJan Choinski
Clay
Surface
ATP Italian Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.8% (1,457 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Italian Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Jan Choinski
Dusan Lajovic
Jan Choinski leads by 179 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Jan Choinski SPW
61.6%
Below tour avg
Dusan Lajovic SPW
58.8%
Below tour avg
● Jan Choinski has a slight serve edge (+2.7%)
Key Matchup Factors
- Jan Choinski holds a commanding 179-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Jan Choinski has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Jan Choinski at 65%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Jan Choinski 65.2%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →