Jan Choinski vs Felix Gill prediction for June 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Felix Gill 0 - Jan Choinski 0. Jan Choinski is favored with a 56.5% win probability.
Felix Gill
1585
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Jan Choinski
1472
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Felix GillJan Choinski
Grass
Surface
ATP Eastbourne - R16
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.3% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Eastbourne - R16
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Jan Choinski
Felix Gill
Felix Gill leads by 112 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Jan Choinski SPW
68.1%
Above tour avg
Felix Gill SPW
65.7%
Above tour avg
● Jan Choinski has a slight serve edge (+2.4%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Jan Choinski ML
-203
Model: 56%
Edge: -10.5%
Felix Gill ML
+175
Model: 44%
Edge: +7.1%
Model Projection
Felix Gill ML +175 · +7.1% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Felix Gill holds a commanding 112-point Elo advantage on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Jan Choinski has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Jan Choinski 56.5%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →