Jaume Munar vs Jacob Fearnley prediction for July 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Jacob Fearnley 0 - Jaume Munar 0. Jaume Munar is favored with a 65.3% win probability.
Jacob Fearnley
1445
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Jaume Munar
1587
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Jacob FearnleyJaume Munar
Grass
Surface
ATP Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.7% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Jaume Munar
Jacob Fearnley
Jaume Munar leads by 142 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Jaume Munar SPW
67.6%
Above tour avg
Jacob Fearnley SPW
64.1%
Above tour avg
● Jaume Munar has a significant serve advantage (+3.5%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Jaume Munar ML
-159
Model: 65%
Edge: +3.9%
Jacob Fearnley ML
+146
Model: 35%
Edge: -5.9%
Key Matchup Factors
- Jaume Munar holds a commanding 142-point Elo advantage on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Jaume Munar has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Jaume Munar at 65%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Jaume Munar 65.3%
--
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →