Jazmin Ortenzi vs Arantxa Rus prediction for May 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Arantxa Rus 0 - Jazmin Ortenzi 0. Jazmin Ortenzi is favored with a 54.1% win probability.
Arantxa Rus
1556
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • WTA
Jazmin Ortenzi
1552
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Arantxa RusJazmin Ortenzi
Clay
Surface
WTA French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.8% (2,384 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Jazmin Ortenzi
Arantxa Rus
Arantxa Rus leads by 5 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Clay: 56.5%
Jazmin Ortenzi SPW
58.0%
Above tour avg
Arantxa Rus SPW
56.6%
Above tour avg
● Jazmin Ortenzi has a slight serve edge (+1.4%)
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (5-point Elo gap)
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Jazmin Ortenzi has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Jazmin Ortenzi 54.1%
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More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →