Jenson Brooksby vs Casper Ruud prediction for May 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Casper Ruud 0 - Jenson Brooksby 0. Casper Ruud is favored with a 59.4% win probability.
Casper Ruud
1672
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Jenson Brooksby
1580
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Casper RuudJenson Brooksby
Hard
Surface
Geneva
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.0% (2,567 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Geneva
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Jenson Brooksby
Casper Ruud
Casper Ruud leads by 93 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Jenson Brooksby SPW
62.1%
Below tour avg
Casper Ruud SPW
67.7%
Above tour avg
● Casper Ruud has a significant serve advantage (+5.6%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Jenson Brooksby ML
-925
Model: 41%
Edge: -49.7%
Casper Ruud ML
+653
Model: 59%
Edge: +46.1%
Model Projection
Casper Ruud ML +653 · +46.1% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Casper Ruud has a moderate 93-point Elo edge on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Casper Ruud has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Casper Ruud 59.4%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →