Jil Teichmann vs Matilde Jorge prediction for June 15, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Matilde Jorge 0 - Jil Teichmann 0. Matilde Jorge is favored with a 55.2% win probability.
Matilde Jorge
1455
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • WTA
Jil Teichmann
1547
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Matilde JorgeJil Teichmann
Hard
Surface
WTA 125K Figueira da Foz
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.2% (5,344 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA 125K Figueira da Foz
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Jil Teichmann
Matilde Jorge
Jil Teichmann leads by 92 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Hard: 56.5%
Jil Teichmann SPW
56.9%
Above tour avg
Matilde Jorge SPW
61.1%
Above tour avg
● Matilde Jorge has a significant serve advantage (+4.2%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Jil Teichmann ML
-411
Model: 45%
Edge: -35.7%
Matilde Jorge ML
+310
Model: 55%
Edge: +30.9%
Model Projection
Matilde Jorge ML +310 · +30.9% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Jil Teichmann has a moderate 92-point Elo edge on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Matilde Jorge has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Matilde Jorge 55.2%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →