Jil Teichmann vs Petra Marcinko prediction for May 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Petra Marcinko 0 - Jil Teichmann 0. Petra Marcinko is favored with a 60.2% win probability.
Petra Marcinko
1506
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • WTA
Jil Teichmann
1515
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Petra MarcinkoJil Teichmann
Hard
Surface
Rabat
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.5% (3,811 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Rabat
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Jil Teichmann
Petra Marcinko
Jil Teichmann leads by 9 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Hard: 56.5%
Jil Teichmann SPW
52.8%
Below tour avg
Petra Marcinko SPW
58.5%
Above tour avg
● Petra Marcinko has a significant serve advantage (+5.7%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Jil Teichmann ML
-211
Model: 40%
Edge: -28.0%
Petra Marcinko ML
+189
Model: 60%
Edge: +25.6%
Model Projection
Petra Marcinko ML +189 · +25.6% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (9-point Elo gap)
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Petra Marcinko has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Petra Marcinko 60.2%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →